Across Canada today is election day. Party leaders wrapped up their campaigns last night after a short 37-day election push. Almost from the start, it was seen as a two-party race between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his rhetoric about Canada becoming the fifty-first state galvanized voters like never before – uniting Canadians. The big question they face at the polls? Who best to take on Trump’s trade war and the question of sovereignty?
Four months ago, the opposition Conservative Party had been almost assured of a big victory, under their leader Pierre Poilievre. But then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned, and with that so did a clearer path to power for Conservatives. They went from a 20-point lead in the polling data – to now several points behind the Liberals led by Mark Carney. While the latest polls suggest a close race between the two parties, Carney has enjoyed a more than dozen-point lead during the short campaign.
Nik Nanos of Nanos Research said the polling momentum stems from Canadian enthusiasm.
“You know the thing is that the Conservative vote is really about change and not like liking the Liberals and wanting to see a different government. But for the Liberals, it’s much more about Mark Carney than the Liberal party. So, Mark Carney hasn’t messed up. He still has the advantage of the preferred prime minister tracking. And Pierre Poilievre supporters are still highly motivated, but not as enthusiastic about him, more enthusiastic about his message than they are of him,” Nanos said.
There are regional differences as well. The Liberals are poised to do well in Atlantic Canada, and Quebec, but analysts say the race is becoming much tighter in two key battlegrounds – Ontario and British Columbia. The prairies are considered the heartland of the Conservatives.
The other part of this campaign is that minor parties like the New Democratic Party, and the separatist Bloc Quebecois are both down in support, giving a big boost to the Liberal campaign.
