New York State, which hasn't voted a Republican governor since 2002 and furthermore, a Republican president since 1984 appears to be a reliably safe blue state, as Governor Kathy Hochul comes up on her re-election efforts for 2026. However, after negative press has hit the Governor’s name as of late some have wonder, is Hochul in danger of losing re-election next year? I talk with electoral expert, Dr. Shyam Sriram from Canisius University and Dr. Laurie Buonanno from Buffalo State University on their different views of Hochul’s favorability as she prepares for reelection.
Antonio Delgado made it known he will not be seeking reelection with Hochul in 2026. This will now be the second time she’s had to find a replacement Lieutenant Governor. The sour relationship between the two has now fully went public; Hochul blasted Delgado saying, “he is simply not interested in doing the job.” Sriram says despite some general unhappiness, Delgado’s future political ambitions possibly led to the sudden split.
“Look, I've heard rumblings from the beginning that there was a lot of unhappiness about a few different issues. Now there's an argument that Delgado himself is probably going to run for governor. So maybe the theory I'm just guessing here is [he’s going to] step away, look at the options, and if he decides to run again, maybe he has time to kind of rehabilitate his image, independent of her, because he was on her team, anything that she's getting thrown at, like with, for example, the correction officer strike, that is that that's tainting his image as well. So, what I think is happening is he is stepping away, going to reevaluate his options. Would not be surprised if he challenges her next year.”
Buonanno shared a different perspective, mentioning it wasn’t a big deal for the governor given the history of New York state politics.
“It doesn't harm her at all. I mean, this is what we expect in New York state politics. I mean, if we go within the past 50 years, if we don't go further back, but if we go there, this happens all the time. Mario Cuomo, he got restless, his Lieutenant Governor quits. I mean, this is no surprise, that he's decided that he's not going to be on the ticket. I mean, he's been signaling this for quite a while, and then it just reached ahead, I think, with when Governor Hochul broke with him on Mayor [Eric] Adams.”
Another topic of controversy that has dominated the headlines negatively for the Governor has been the correction officer strike. The Governor along with the New York State Correctional Officers and Police Benevolent Association [NYSCOPBA] have came to an agreement in hopes of getting officers back to work. Regardless of how the eventual conflict will end that relationship has been soured. Buonanno believes the sour feelings from the officers go beyond just the prisons.
“I think HALT is part of this. And this is very controversial right now, because people are trying to get a sense of what exactly is going on. What is solitary confinement? How is it working in the correctional facilities? And then, you know, there's these other issues. Five more prisons slated to be closed. Prisons like SUNY, these are economic powerhouses in these rural counties. I mean, these are two places where Republicans gave jobs to, Upstate prisons and SUNY comprehensive campuses, these are both kind of on the chopping block now because Republicans don’t control the [state] senate anymore.”
Sriram sided with Hochul, and the democratic position that the prison system itself is bit outdated but acknowledged that correction officers needed better support.
“The whole thing about solitary confinement, Democrats say that it’s an archaic policy that is inhumane. And then there are other people say, like, no, we need to have it. So, what I'm just saying is that two things, like, in this case, there needs to be, probably better support and pay for correction officers, but prisons themselves also probably need to be overhauled as well.”
When Hochul was elected governor in 2022, she beat her opponent Lee Zeldin by 5 percentage points, which would be the narrowest gubernatorial election for New York since 1994. Sriram says although she is trying, she represents a dying brand of politics.
“She is trying things. For example, I read today that she is now offering federal employees who were terminated by Elon Musk and Doge the opportunity to work for New York State. And I like that idea, but Hochul is trying to swim against the tide, and the tide is that even though [Kamala] Harris won the state nationally, the United States has moved very much to the right. So, the argument I what I'm just trying to say, is that Hochul’s reelection is by no means a sure thing, and her team must know that.”
Buonanno thought it was more of a messaging failure on Hochul’s part and that she will need to improve that in order to be re-elected next year.
“She's doing a good job. Her problem is messaging. That's her major problem. Her second problem was she came into this office inexperienced in the kind of in very difficult intergovernmental relations we have in New York State.”
Hochul won’t appear on the ballot again until next year’s Democratic Primary.
